TCU would boast wins over the Sooners and Oklahoma State, but it might be as simple as the committee thinking Alabama is the better team. TCU winning the Big 12 might be the best-case scenario for Alabama because the Tide would like their chances when being considered alongside the Horned Frogs. 8:30 p.m.-11 p.m.: Championship Drive: Who's In Presented by Capital One (ESPN).6 p.m.-8:30 p.m.: Championship Drive Presented By Capital One (ESPN2).6 p.m.-8 p.m.: SEC Now: Bowl Special (SEC Network).Noon-4 p.m.: College Football Playoff Selection Show Presented by AT&T (ESPN).9 a.m.-noon: Championship Drive Presented by Northwestern Mutual (ESPN2).How much ground will the committee ask them to cover to get into the top four with a win over Oklahoma? And you thought TCU's falling from No. Forget the top four: Does the committee think TCU is a top-10 team heading into the Big 12 title game? TCU has a chance to avenge its loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Let's see whether TCU is ranked ahead of Alabama on Tuesday night. Can Alabama do the same? Here's how their résumés compare.ĬFP locks: SEC champ, ACC champ, WisconsinĬase for No. Ohio State made the CFP last season despite not winning its division. The better comparison for Bama might be the 2015 Ohio State team, which might have been the most talented team in the country but didn't make the playoff because of one loss. The Tide do not have a similar marquee win in or out of conference. It's a different year, with different résumés, but the losses and Big Ten title would be comparable.Īlthough it's tempting to compare Alabama's résumé to Ohio State's in 2016, when the Buckeyes finished in the top four despite not winning their division, don't forget that the Buckeyes' nonconference win over Oklahoma carried a lot of weight with the committee. Don't forget, the two-loss Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin that year to win the Big Ten championship and it wasn't enough. The committee is wrestling with Ohio State's 55-24 loss to Iowa, just as it did with Penn State's 49-10 loss to Michigan last season. The best comparison for Ohio State's résumé would be Penn State's in 2016. Ohio State would have the better résumé, but would the committee consider how consistently good Alabama has looked on the field and choose the Tide? 18 LSU, which wouldn't compare to an Ohio State win over undefeated Wisconsin, or even to the Buckeyes' win against No. The Tide pass the eye test and have the metrics to prove it: They are the only FBS team to rank in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency.Īlabama's best win, though, is against No.
2 by the committee through the first four rankings in spite of a strength of schedule ranked No. The best argument for the Tide is that they were ranked No. The debate would boil down to Alabama and Ohio State. Once again Urban Meyer has Ohio State knocking on the door of the CFP. The problem with USC is that, even with a Pac-12 championship, the Trojans' best and only ranked wins would be over Stanford (twice).
Four of those opponents have won at least eight games, and Clemson could wind up with a win over the SEC champ if it's Auburn. Miami would likely be out, riding a two-game losing streak, but Clemson could at least make a case with its seven wins against teams above. The ACC loser, whether it be Miami or Clemson, would have two losses, and it is a stretch to think the committee would reward a two-loss conference runner-up.
Here's a look at three scenarios that could play out on championship weekend: Scenario 1: Oklahoma wins Big 12, Ohio State wins Big TenĬFP locks: SEC champ, ACC champ, OklahomaĬase for No. If they don't both win, though, then the debate will turn to teams such as the Tide, the Buckeyes and perhaps other contenders. The champions of the ACC and SEC are most likely locks, and if Wisconsin and Oklahoma win the Big Ten and Big 12 title games, respectively, there won't be much drama on Selection Day on Dec. The fates of Alabama and Ohio State present the most interesting scenarios entering championship weekend, with the potential to cause the most difficult decisions for the 13-member selection committee. With no conference championship game to play in this weekend, that means the Tide will need help if they're to avoid missing the playoff for the first time. Alabama will likely fall out the College Football Playoff top four for the first time when the new rankings are revealed Tuesday night (7 p.m.
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